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I’m in Hollywood

By Just Do

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In a Firefly Headquarters small conference room, Warren Buffett forehead tight wrinkle, fast is reading the present clover fund investment material.

Buffett thinks that he wants to look the stock investment combination of clover fund will be rejected by Eric, this after all is a business secret of company, even if he is also the Firefly Group shareholder, if Eric insisted that he cannot see.

However, what making Buffett accidental is, Eric actually refreshedly complies, even has not made him sign any confidentiality agreement.

Now, reads pages of materials in hand, Buffett was also realizing why Eric will not garrison to him completely.

The stock investment combination of clover fund main centralized in three domains.

The first kind is the Internet hi-tech stock, the main investment objective including Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, AOL, SUN, Oracle, this kind of stock occupies more than 50% of total investment scale.

The second kind is carrier stock, is AT-T, Sprint, Verizon and other companies, part of investment ratios probably are 30%.

Finally less than 20% investments pressed on several large-scale cable television operators, was Comcast, the long-range communication and foundation wired even also has Time Warner and other companies.

Simply speaking, these three kinds of company stocks basically are at present very irritable hi-tech stocks.

In recent years, the large scale investment fund young odd dealer, basically is pursuing these type stocks. Therefore, even if foreign the investment portfolio of clover fund, in bystander opinion, does not have any special place.

But in the Buffett eye, the investment portfolio of Eric completely belongs to act unreasonably, without any methodicalness.

Usually, a stock investment of fund combines is more complex, the anti- risk ability is stronger. But similarly, this fund wants to obtain the possibility of high repayment to be also lower. Because of the stock investment of diversification, will make this fund the investment return ratio maintain consistent with the entire market bulk lots.

The outstanding investor, can always run to win the bulk lots. Reason that Buffett were called the stock god, lies in the Berkshire Hathaway yearly rate during dozens years basically can fling to clear the way above by far the Jones index ten percentage points.

An investment return ratio of fund maintains consistent with the bulk lots, looks like in Buffett, this absolutely does not have any significance. Because the stock market bulk lots grow, actually also means the overall growth of national economy, if rises except the price again, currency inflation and other factors, the actual value and purchasing power of property will not have the too big change.

Naturally, Buffett also understands that Eric this is betting the new wave of bull market of NASDAQ market to arrive, then seizes the chance to carry on the stock arbitrage, this in fact was also equal to running to win ‚bulk lots’. Buffett does not oppose the stock arbitrage, he also frequently such does. Just, regarding the stock of arbitrage nature, Buffett can never have for a long time, will not have the destination long-term big pen to buy up to Eric like this.

However, sees the final clover fund stock asset value, the Buffett brow, although has not stretched, actually cannot bear be flabbergasted.

Two years, around this investments of 5 billion USD, rose in value 9 100 million USD.

If can dump the stock of clover fund completely, except tax affairs, in addition Firefly Group earnings, the net profit of this company whole year over 7 billion USD.

1997 majority of company wealth report had not disclosed that but, Buffett actually clearly remembers that 1996, the North America year gained highest General Motors Corporation, the annual net profit also 68. 800 million USD.

As a top investor, Buffett has not put down the material in hand, cannot help but started to consider at heart, if have these 7 billion USD, how should invest.

Perhaps, should settle on for a long time state insurance company whole to buy first oneself, but can also increase holds the Coca Cola stock. With hand compared with the high risk stocks of these universal 50-60 times of market profits, insurance company and Coca Cola and so on company can bring the long-term stable income the best investment objective.

When Eric enters the conference room, just sees the old man such old god in the place ponder or being in a daze.

Felt that a person's shadow sits down in oneself opposite, Buffett responded that put down the document in hand, took down the presbyopic glasses to saying: „Eric, I want to know that actually you how do plan?”

„This year Firefly again one after another will also invest 2 billion USD to buy up the hi-tech stock, I planned that is the next big expansion of Firefly Group accumulates a capital, this, the company can reduce the equity transaction proportion as far as possible.”

Buffett shook the head slightly, said: „Eric, you have not experienced the stock disaster, does not know this fearfully, but I have seen, some billionaires, faced with the stock disaster, only will sometimes require day of time possibly to go bankrupt. These stocks of clover fund investment, in my opinion, once the stock disaster occurred, majority of possibly in a short time breaks your buying up price.”

„Warren, I am not the greedy person, therefore, I thought when I can act bashful this seizing the chance standpoint,” Eric smiled, said self-confidently.

Reason that Eric shows the stock investment combination of clover fund in front of Buffett without hesitation , because his very self-confident these materials will not bring any useful information to Buffett. The own most important card in a hand, is actually to future being prescient.

Although the rise and drop of NASDAQ index will receive Eric this more or less only ‚butterfly’ influence, but a general economy development trend of national level will not have the too big change, the Eric current influence could not have been this degree.

Buffett shook the head once more, said: „I appreciate superintendent's long-term layout to a company very much, necessity that but in my opinion, you completely have not take risked now.”

Eric lets go saying: „Warren, I have not take risked. These 5 billion USD, as well as this year plan 2 billion USD, is Firefly Group surplus funds. Even if lost all completely, although somewhat was a pity that actually cannot injure the Firefly Group basis. If must take risk, I currently will use definitely the investment release lever, 5 billion USD capital, the pry 2-3 10 billion USD capital are very relaxed.”

Although Buffett thought as before the investment of Eric extremely take risks, but also has to nod to approve his words.

However, even if has with the rich profit prospect, Buffett too does not approve of the Eric action at heart as before, he wants to grasp the fund in the investment that in own hand carries on itself to want.

The ownership percentage of Berkshire Hathaway to Firefly is 5% , 1996 year Firefly Group net profit is 1.7 billion 60 million USD, drawing bonus that Berkshire Hathaway obtains achieves 8 8 million USD, but in the same year, Berkshire Hathaway net profit 7. 2.5 billion USD. In other words, Berkshire Hathaway to Firefly Group 5% owning stocks, the year income of bringing surpasses its whole year profit 10%. As a multiplex investment company, 10% profit proportions, are very important.

Eric also guessed that from the Buffett expression his approximate idea, said with a smile: „Warren, you can definitely sell to me Firefly Group in Berkshire Hathaway hand actually, deferred to recently the estimate value of Wall Street to Firefly Group 100 billion USD, 5% stocks, 5 billion USD, did you think what kind of?”

Firefly Group definitely is unable to take 5 billion USD funds now one time, but, if other Buffett or shareholders are willing to give up the stock in hand, in the Eric short-term collects 5 billion USD not too big difficulties.

„Eric, I will not give up to owning stocks of Firefly Group.” Buffett hear of Eric said that shakes the head without hesitation, said with a laugh.

He has studied the Firefly Group present development situation in detail, although this company the scale is getting more and more huge, but does not have any redundancy extremely fat trend.

Entire Firefly Group, Firefly Pictures and new line Film Industry, Disney Film Industry and Bowei international distribution company and ABC TV Network, AE TV Network and ESPN TV Station and Pixar animation studio, Disneyland and digital domain wait/etc., this long Liezi Corporation can bring the rich profit to the parent company completely the premium asset, such can realize the stock of large-scale media group the multiplication actually the unified whole complements one another, is Buffett is simply long-awaited.

So long as Eric does not make in his opinion completely impervious company development strategy, Buffett will not sell the Firefly Group stock absolutely. After all, even if unable to draw bonus from the Firefly Group gain profit, but the stock of this kind of company, in future many years, is doomed to realize the stable increment.

Eric had not counted on that Buffett will sell the stock in hand, but said: „Warren, you can also tell other people, if they want to sell the Firefly Group stock at any time, I can give the most generous buy back price. The Firefly Group yearly rate is actually very low, I will think the next few years, they definitely to the NASDAQ hi-tech stock heart movement, will want to invest really need money.”

Buffett has patted front clover fund investment material, said: „In my opinion, this is only one pile of bubbles.”

„I do not believe that” Eric shakes the head, said: „After Southeast Asia economic crisis, the innumerable hot money will rush North America, bubble when the time comes, hundred million USD pile up surely, even if shatter, remaining things regarding us, is a huge wealth.”

On the Buffett face is having the temperate smiling face as before, shakes the head saying: „ Eric, I will not receive your misleading, the criterion that I invest does not involve the not familiar domain. If I settle on a company, I will study it first thoroughly, will then get rid.

You think carefully, this point, is suitable to you similarly. Firefly Group and Firefly in investment your hand, as well as the innumerable subsidiary company, has developed very big scale, although you now are also maintaining to these companies the good control strength, but you will have the feeling of lacking the ability to do what one would like sooner or later, at that time, you must do, discards the not familiar domain, develops the pinnacle the thing that you can control. ”

Eric nods, said: „Therefore, among the North America occupation Manager person, I most admires is Jack Welch.”

„If you are interested, I can help you recommend, but, Jack was infatuated with the management about environment, this was also not the good deed, the General Electric service in fact became extremely fat. I thought that over the next ten years, is forced on own initiative, General Electric will reduce the service gradually.”

Buffett said that also analyzes to say full of enthusiasm: The initial period that „ actually, Jack takes office, starts from the fine scissors service, at that time the General Electric service and staff member system extremely fat could not withstand, Jack once reduced from eight General Electric management level to three, this company can have no ideological problems weighing on the mind, develops the present to have more than 100 subsidiary company property close 300 billion USD scales.

But the operation concept of any superintendent possibly is not perfect, although Jack has guaranteed General Electric this for more than 10 years rapid growth splendidly, but these many years, issue that because the flaw of his management style accumulates, will be doomed to be getting more and more serious. For example management about environment of Jack love, in my opinion, General Electric has more than 100 subsidiary companies, like NBC TV Network and so on, basically does not need. If the next superintendent is unable to solve the problem that he leaves behind perfectly, General Electric will move toward the decline unavoidably. ”

Eric is listening to the analysis of Buffett earnestly, when he said that asked with a smile: „Have you, Warren, you wielded Berkshire Hathaway to exceed the 30 year?”

„Different, this different, what General Electric management is the entity industry, what I do is the equity investment, in these years I had not stopped the change investment portfolio. Let alone. Berkshire Hathaway present market value also only then 390 hundred million USD, for me, to ‚extremely fat’ also difference is very far.”

Buffett said that also looks with a smile to Eric, said: „Therefore, I very much envy your this kid actually, the achievement that the short ten years, you make has gone far beyond our these old fogies for a lifetime. Sometimes, I want like you in the Kuwaiti war, the Southeast Asia economic crisis as well as the present new technical tide, pressed the massive gambling stakes to brave one time to be dangerous, what a pity, I am unable to convince itself to take risk like you finally. Right, have you made a lot of money in Southeast Asia in this year?”

„1.1 billion USD,” Eric has not concealed, said: „I have not thought that will have these many.”

„As far as I know, the two funds in rope Ross hand, this general idea has gained 6 billion USD, his income is 2 billion USD, but, your capital are willing Dingyuan to be lower than the two funds in rope Ross hand.” Buffett was saying, cannot bear swings sigh with emotion begins.

I’m in Hollywood

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